Aurora Cannabis Inc (TSE:ACB) and the Cannabis Complex Trade Goes Dark—What Comes Next

Benjamin A. Smith

Trade in Aurora Cannabis Inc (TSE:ACB) (OTCQB:ACBFF) (FRA:21P) and the rest of the cannabis complex went dark today, as short-term equilibrium finds balance between buyers are sellers. I look into what comes next for Canadian cannabis stocks, as the market searches for direction.

Price action in today’s cannabis sector trade can really be summarized in two words: low volume. Neither co-sector leaders Canopy Growth or Aurora Cannabis showed much inclination to move in either direction. Volume in the latter was a paltry 6,612,170 shares, or approximately ↓60.13% lower than the 3-month daily average. Canopy and Aphria Inc. experienced similar moribund action.

For all intent and purposes, program trading went dark as institutional money stayed on the sidelines.

Given this lack of activity—which isn’t all that surprising with most cannabis stock technicals in no-man’s land—what comes next? It’s a muddied picture to be sure, but one I’ll attempt to sort out nonetheless.

Aurora Cannabis: Classic Technical Pattern Shaping Up

When looking at the charts, it’s interesting to note that all three of the biggest Canadian marijuana stocks by market capitalization—Canopy Growth, Aurora Cannabis and Aphria—are forming distinct head & shoulders patterns. While I rarely give credence to traditional charting patterns’ ability to predict the future, it’s hard to ignore today’s unmistakable setups. They jump out at you on multiples timelines.

Starting with Aurora Cannabis, the technical support/resistance levels are clearly delineated. Near term support rests near the $7.78-7.85 axis on the downside while resistance resides between $8.15-8.25. With buyers and sellers at equilibrium, the side which asserts itself the most can win out.

From an trading perspective, staying away from head fakes which tend to manifest themselves on the open is key. Once prices jump over the buying/selling zones and successfully re-test intraday, it’s usually safe to dip your toe in the water. Again, traders and investors looking to optimize entry points should look for breaks of $7.78-7.85 downside support and $8.15-8.25 upside resistance as the next area of interest in tomorrow’s trade.

Turning to Canopy Growth, note a similar head & shoulders pattern on 30-min chart. Key levels to watch tomorrow are $28.23-28.50 to the upside, and $27.00 to the downside. An upside break of the former could set up an intraday test to Canopy’s 50-Day MA at $29.56/share. Likewise, a downside break of $27.00 could bring $26.00/share into play or slightly lower.

As always, volume will be a determining factor in terms of tomorrow’s follow-through. If we see another day of sub-fifty percent below average volume, not much is going to happen. However, to achieve the modest near-term price points we’re talking about in the charts, only average volume will do. With the market engaged in consolidation mode and still technically broken, it should be a trader’s market to close off the week.

Additional Cannabis Investor Stories

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Benjamin A. Smith

Benjamin A. Smith

Ben is a research analyst and capital markets professional with nearly 20 years of experience. His areas of expertise are broad-based, and include extensive knowledge of macro economics, stock/derivative trading, commodity complexes, cryptocurrencies and technical/quant analysis. He also maintains an particular affinity for U.S. politics and the macro-regulatory environment facing...
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