CGC Following Cronos Group Inc Playbook On Inaugural NYSE Trade

Benjamin A. Smith
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With Canopy Growth Corp (NYSE:CGC) opening for trade on the New York Stock Exchange today, the initial price action is mimicking that of Cronos Group Inc (CVE:CRON) (NASDAQ:CRON) three months prior. After trading as high as $32.00 USD in the pre-market, shares have come back into orbit—for the time being.

That same dynamic occurred with Cronos Group upon its original opening on the NASDAQ on February 27, 2018. At the time, they were the first Canadian cannabis company to be dual-listed on an American exchange, despite the fact cannabis remains illegal on the federal level.

After gapping up $0.69 to $8.24/share (↑9.14%) and trading as high as $8.38/share (↑10.99%) on February 27, sellers pounced in the morning session. CRON proceeded to shed ↓14.44%, peak-to-trough, before paring losses to just $0.14 by day’s end (↓1.80).

In summary, the issue soared higher, crashed, then recovered into the close on Day 1. CGC has followed this playbook exactly, but to a lesser degree.

All told, the company’s initial foray on the NASDAQ was a volatile experience, where enthusiastic American investors looking to gain legitimate access to the Canadian cannabis market clashed head-on with short-term profit takers. But once the latter took their money and ran, investors were granted clear impetus to run up the stock. Day 2 proved to be a whole different ballgame.

As of this writing, CGC is only lower by $0.56, or ↓2.16%. That’s a far cry from the Cronos Group roller coaster ride 3-months earlier, where prices swung 25-percent to the extremities. As Canopy Growth is endowed with a much deeper institutional following, price fluctuations have been decidedly more modest. Still, it can be said the same playbook is in effect (so far), but with lesser volatility.

Considering Canopy Growth has skyrocketed ↑32.28% over the past three weeks, this shouldn’t come as any surprise. Cronos Group had also experience a ↑14.52% in the days prior to listing on NASDAQ. The plethora of deep-pocketed pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, exchange traded funds etc. are not generally in the business of chasing positions, and many are likely still in the vetting stage.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fNxTOzPT48

Canopy Growth CEO Bruce Linton talks about applying for a U.S. Exchange listing back in October 2017

Even if today’s result doesn’t meet the results-now swing trader class, shareholders should not lose sight of the importance of Canopy’s listing on the NYSE. It places the company in pole-position to acquire U.S.-based assets, and opens them up to the deepest funds the world has to offer. Indexing also becomes a possibility. With indexing comes passive investing participation, and forced buying through structured index allocation. Canopy will be at the head of the class for all marijuana-based and perhaps mid-cap growth ETFs.

All told, investors should be quite satisfied with CGC’s performance. The stock remains technically positioned to move higher in the intermediate term, and nothing beyond normal-course profit taking has transpired so far. Beyond today’s ho-hum experience, Day 2 promises to provide a more true measure on which way the cannabis wins blow.

If it’s anything like Cronos Group three months earlier, CGC investors are in for a delightful ride.

Benjamin A. Smith

Benjamin A. Smith

Ben is a research analyst and capital markets professional with nearly 20 years of experience. His areas of expertise are broad-based, and include extensive knowledge of macro economics, stock/derivative trading, commodity complexes, cryptocurrencies and technical/quant analysis. He also maintains an particular affinity for U.S. politics and the macro-regulatory environment facing...
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